This data was collected during a government shutdown, raising doubts about its quality. With this caveat in mind, the data pushes the Fed towards a more dovish tone and keeps the possibility of rate cuts in 2026 alive.
A look at the numbers: the figure is very good… but comes with an asterisk. We don't know for sure yet.
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Even the Fed has acknowledged that some reports from this period may be distorted.
This should be celebrated, without ceasing to verify.
Real disinflation or a measurement problem?
At first glance, these are excellent news: less pressure on goods, services, and especially on housing, which marked its slowest pace since 2021. But there is a significant 'but'.
Inflation surprisingly fell sharply: in the combined October-November period, prices rose by only 0.2%, when they had been growing at a monthly rate of close to 0.3%.
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