With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Moscow sought to exert direct pressure on Europe by cutting natural gas supplies, especially amid the sanctions imposed by European countries on Russia. However, the increase in shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the bulk of which came from the United States, helped alleviate this Russian pressure and enabled European countries to continue facing the consequences of reduced supplies without collapsing under "energy blackmail." Nevertheless, the rising political tensions between Washington and Brussels leaders are raising serious concerns that Europe's dependence on American LNG could turn into a new form of political pressure, not much different from what Russia was previously practicing. This could put Europe in a new predicament, despite the United States having played a key role in getting it out of its crisis with Moscow. In this context, the managing director for energy affairs at the London-based political risk research group "Eurasia Group," Henning Gloystein, stated that Europe replaced its heavy dependence on Russia with a similar dependence on the United States, noting that this choice seemed appropriate about four years ago, but current international changes have made it more problematic now. Europe's need to import huge quantities of energy is one of the continent's most prominent strategic weaknesses. Before the war in Ukraine, Russian natural gas was a cornerstone of European energy security, accounting for nearly half of the European Union's gas imports in 2019. With the start of the war, the volumes of gas flowing through pipelines passing through Ukraine, Poland, and under the Baltic Sea decreased sharply. This led to a significant increase in prices, increased pressure on consumers, factories, and governments, and negatively reflected on the entire European economy. A lifeline In the midst of this crisis, the American role emerged as a lifeline, as the United States sent ships loaded with huge quantities of LNG to several European ports, including the Netherlands, France, and Belgium, as well as other regions, aiming to compensate for the deficit in Russian supplies and calm markets that had seen an unprecedented rise in prices. The American role was previously relatively limited, with the United States' share of European gas imports not exceeding about 5% in late 2019. However, after the war, this share increased significantly, with American gas shipments reaching about a quarter of the European Union's natural gas imports by 2025. This large flow of American gas seemed, until recently, like a rescue initiative from Washington for the Old Continent. However, recent international political developments have reopened questions about the consequences of this growing dependence. Since the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, his administration has moved to use trade as a tool of political pressure amid its multiple disagreements with other countries, including his controversial stances, such as his recent attempt to seize Greenland. European concerns now revolve around the possibility that Trump may use the power the United States has gained in the oil and gas sector as a political weapon to force other countries to accept his policies. In this context, international researcher in Paris Ann-Sophie Corbe, from Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, confirmed that there is a growing awareness within European circles of the potential for excessive dependence on American LNG, considering that this issue could represent the core of the upcoming predicament. The Trump administration itself contributed to deepening this dependence by encouraging European countries to increase their imports of American gas under the framework of the trade agreement signed with the European Union last year. Nevertheless, analysts agree that any manipulation of gas flows could lead to rising prices and costs, which is bad news for the European economy. Ogne Kiliuskaite, an energy and climate analyst at the Bruegel research institute, confirmed that the concentration of imports has become a factor of paramount importance, pointing out that Europe today is more vulnerable to disruptions related to the United States due to its growing dependence on it as a primary energy source. Europe's need to import huge quantities of energy is one of the continent's most prominent strategic weaknesses. The large flow of American gas seemed until recently like a rescue initiative from Washington for Europe. However, some analysts express skepticism about the possibility of the Trump administration resorting to direct measures, such as cutting shipments, due to the potential conflict with the interests of the American oil and gas sector. In this context, former U.S. Special Envoy for Energy David Golden, now president of the consulting firm "Golden Global Strategies," stated that any such step would be a negative signal to the markets and would significantly affect the competitiveness of a sector that the U.S. administration is committed to supporting. Redirecting gas flows instead of stopping them completely The nature of the oil and gas industry in the United States differs from that in Russia, where the Kremlin, using the state-owned monopoly "Gazprom," was able to use gas supplies as a political weapon in 2022, according to a study by economist Jack Reed of Oxford Economics. Reed believes that in the event of escalating tensions, the United States might resort to redirecting gas flows instead of stopping them completely, while other analysts expect the possibility of indirect measures, such as imposing tariffs on gas. According to data from the Bruegel research institute, LNG flows from the United States to EU countries increased by about 60% in 2025 compared to the previous year. Analysts expect this increase in supplied quantities to continue. In an attempt to partially meet American demands, Europe continues to reduce its imports of Russian gas, which had fallen to about 12% of total imports by 2025. Norway, despite not being a member of the European Union, is the largest supplier of gas to the bloc, with a share of about 30% of total imports. A boom in supplies On the global front, the United States has become the largest exporter of LNG, where developer companies are investing billions of dollars in building advanced facilities for liquefying gas and shipping it across the seas. Europe, due to its geographical proximity to export ports in the Gulf of Mexico, is a logical and suitable destination for these shipments. In turn, China, the world's largest importer of LNG, has significantly reduced its purchases of American gas due to the tariffs imposed by Washington. Despite the challenges associated with this, Europe may benefit from the expected boom in supplies in the coming years, which could contribute to lowering still relatively high prices. Despite growing European investments in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy, the European continent still desperately needs natural gas to meet heating and industrial sector needs. Europe is also seeking to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels amid declining production from local oil and gas fields, as well as due to the reluctance of some countries, such as the United Kingdom, to drill new wells after a sharp drop in their oil companies' production. Christopher Hazelr, lead analyst at the consulting firm Rystad Energy, stated that Europe does not have wide options in securing energy sources.
