Benchmark prices in the energy sector continue to rise as the conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies, and the market sees a higher probability of prices surpassing $100 per barrel. So far, the crude oil price has not shown any sign of relief, having risen by almost 30% since the conflict began and continuing its upward trend. During this Friday's session, WTI crude started trading at $86.37 per barrel, an increase of 6.62% from the previous day and 28.7% over the six-day conflict. Meanwhile, the European benchmark, Brent, opened the session at $89.21 per barrel, a 4.45% increase from the previous day and a 26.09% rise since the attacks on Iran began. The oil surge is driven by market risk aversion due to energy supply disruptions from the war, with no signs of an imminent end to the attacks. Amid the pressure on fuels, Amador bets that the war in Iran will not last more than four weeks. Yesterday, Congress confirmed its support for the military conflict after the U.S. House of Representatives rejected, by a vote of 219 to 212, a resolution to force an end to U.S. attacks on Iran. Concurrently, attacks on Tehran intensified, and Qatar's Energy Minister stated that if the war in the Middle East continues, Gulf producers could halt their energy exports in 'a few weeks.' On the other hand, the U.S. is signaling a push to increase global supply, having lifted sanctions on India for purchasing Russian crude for a 30-day period and restoring diplomatic relations with Venezuela. The rising crude price has significant impacts for the U.S. government, which had boasted of falling gasoline prices, a situation complicated by the annual outlook and also complicating the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates at the pace President Donald Trump desires. In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum's government may activate IEPS stimulus, which acts as a subsidy to prevent gasoline prices from soaring, though it could impact public finances by reducing revenue from this tax. Amador is considering activating IEPS stimulus amid oil pressure from attacks on Iran. Yesterday, the Mexican mix price closed at $75 per barrel, its highest level in nearly a year, exceeding the $55.3 per barrel forecast by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) to balance public finances amid falling gasoline IEPS revenue. For Pemex, this is a limited reprieve, as a strategy to reduce exports has been followed since the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's government and continues in the current administration. Exports alone were reduced by 44% in January compared to last year.
