Large companies in the United States are being cautious ahead of a close election, with much at stake according to analysts. Figures like Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Bill Gates prefer to remain silent, while analysts like Jean-Paul van Oudsheusden of eToro emphasize that the candidates' fiscal plans and uncertainty about Congress are key.
In general terms, Kamala Harris proposes raising the corporate tax to 28%, while Donald Trump promises to lower it to 15% and impose tariffs on Chinese products. According to Mirova, a victory for Harris would favor large companies, while Trump would benefit domestic and discretionary consumer companies.
The financial sector will be affected by potential changes in taxes and regulations. Big banks could face regulatory adjustments and fines. Sectors like infrastructure and technology could benefit regardless of the election outcome.
Regarding technology, Elon Musk's influence would favor tech companies in the event of a Republican victory. Mergers and acquisitions will be important in this sector, although the current FTC chair's antitrust stance creates uncertainty.
In defense, a Trump victory could mean a large military budget, while Biden has proposed arming Ukraine. In the healthcare system, Harris proposes changes that would affect private insurers. Regarding energy, Republicans favor fossil fuels and Democrats favor renewables.
Despite the uncertainty and volatility prior to the elections, some analysts anticipate stock market increases and debt yields after November 5. Companies and sectors are closely watching the results and potential repercussions on their businesses.
