Germaín Zittelmaier, head of the European research institute 'Bruegel', stated that the United States under President Donald Trump's administration has become an untrustworthy partner. He believes that Trump's policies have opened the door for China to strengthen its relations with Latin American, African, and Asian countries. Zittelmaier, in an interview with the Spanish newspaper 'El País', added that Europe needs to build its own alliances and form an independent bloc that serves its interests and enhances its position in the changing international system. Europe also needs to strengthen its ties with developing nations. Here are excerpts from the interview: ■ Have Trump's policies led some of Washington's traditional allies to get closer to China? ■■ The most prominent development in this direction was the last Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which carried clear symbolism. It featured Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside the presidents of China (Xi Jinping), Russia (Vladimir Putin), and North Korea (Kim Jong Un). Although this does not constitute a formal alliance, it remains a concerning development. Despite India's long history of non-alignment, it continues to have a persistent border dispute with China and has not yet developed an industrial base capable of competing with Beijing. Furthermore, a number of African and Latin American nations have forged strong ties with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. ■ What about security relations between Europe and the US? ■■ The future of these relations will depend heavily on the fate of NATO. If the alliance remains cohesive, Europe will stay with Washington. However, if the European Union moves to enhance its independence within NATO, as the US administration itself demands, Europeans could gain greater capacity to make independent decisions in areas like trade, potentially opening the door to building common ground with countries that adhere to the principle of rules-based free trade—the foundation of the European economic model. ■ Do you believe the changes in the US are irreversible? ■■ The United States has become an untrustworthy state. A return of a democratic administration to power will not be enough to restore trust unless a majority of Republicans also backtrack on the policies adopted by Trump. Otherwise, the world will remain in the same state it appeared in after the events of January 6, 2021. ■ How will China's excess productive capacity shape the new global order? ■■ The issue is complex and partially related to government support, but it is also the result of an effective industrial policy that boosted innovation and significantly reduced costs. Therefore, this situation has a positive global aspect, especially regarding clean and cheap technologies. ■ And what if China continues on this path? ■■ The equation is no longer as simple as in the past and is no longer based on the idea that China produces goods while developed countries produce services. It is sometimes necessary to impose tariffs on certain Chinese goods, such as cars, as well as to impose controls on Chinese investment into EU countries. ■ Can China's productive capacity influence geopolitical blocs? ■■ The impact is clear, especially in non-industrialized countries that have opened their markets to low-cost Chinese products. These are goods that those countries could have produced themselves. In exchange, China is building infrastructure in these nations. However, if Beijing changes its policy and begins to provide genuine financial aid to developing countries, it could consolidate its influence, albeit outside the military framework. ■ What role can the European Union play in this context? ■■ Europe needs to seriously pursue strengthening its relations with developing nations. These countries are essential for Europe in terms of global carbon emission reduction and to curb excessive dependence on China regarding raw materials and intermediate goods. Europe's influence lies in its ability to offer generous assistance to help developing countries build their industrial capacities. Europe needs to build its own alliances, form an independent bloc that serves its interests and enhances its position in the changing international system.
