Military competition in space is intensifying year by year, but it has at least become slightly more transparent. In 2026, five areas should be monitored as they may shape this growing competition.
First, the plan of U.S. President Donald Trump to build a missile defense shield called the "Golden Dome" to protect America. While this vision may become clearer in 2026, both ordering new interceptor missiles to complement those already in Alaska and California and proceeding with plans for space-based laser weapons would be extremely costly.
Second, the progress made by Elon Musk, owner of SpaceX and a former close advisor to Trump. Musk stated that his Starship launch vehicle, the most powerful ever, will be sent to Mars for the first time in 2026, though without a crew. The success of Starship could have major implications for the U.S. civilian space program and its military ambitions, given the vehicle's immense cargo capacity. However, the tense relationship between Musk and Trump could complicate matters.
Third, whether Russia will violate the rules applied in space. In 2024, the U.S. government warned that Moscow was developing a space-based nuclear weapon capable of destroying a large number of satellites in low Earth orbit at once. The Russian satellite "Kosmos 2553," launched in February 2022—the month Russia's invasion of Ukraine began—is of particular concern, although it is believed to carry a mock warhead, not a real nuclear bomb. Such a weapon would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the placement of weapons of mass destruction in orbit.
Fourth, an increasing number of countries are adopting offensive space operations. Now, they are openly talking about the need to launch weapons from, in, and toward space in any future conflict with Russia or China. The development of capabilities like Britain's "anti-space" measures and France's "rendezvous and proximity operations"—which can be used offensively—points to this trend.
Fifth, new technologies and companies are likely to penetrate the field of space warfare, just as they have on Earth. The private sector is increasingly capable of monitoring satellites. The American company Maxar uses satellites to capture images of Earth from orbit. Another company, LeoLabs, operates a network of 150 telescopes to track satellites. Western intelligence agencies will watch whether Russia continues to test this system.
Thus, the space arms race is heating up, becoming more open and multi-faceted.
