The German Kiel Institute for the World Economy forecasts that military aid to Ukraine will reach its lowest level in 2025, as European countries, which currently provide the bulk of the aid, are unable to compensate for the halt in U.S. assistance. According to Christoph Trebesch, head of the Kiel Institute's team, 'based on data available until October, Europe has not been able to dispatch aid at the same momentum as in the first half of 2025.' He added, 'If this slowdown continues, 2025 will be the year with the lowest level of new aid to Ukraine since 2022.' The Kiel Institute tracks military, financial, and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. Before U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to halt aid upon his return to the White House in early 2025, the U.S. provided more than half of that assistance. Although European countries initially managed to compensate for the reduction, their aid has declined since the beginning of the summer. In the first 10 months of 2025, Ukraine received military aid worth 32.5 billion euros, mostly from Europe. In the next two months, Ukraine's allies would need to allocate more than five billion euros to reach the 2022 annual low (37.6 billion euros) and over nine billion euros to reach the 2022-2024 average of 41.6 billion euros. Christoph Trebesch also stated, 'based on data available until October, Europe has not been able to dispatch aid at the same momentum as in the first half of 2025.'
