As the war in the Gulf enters a phase of higher regional risk, Russia and China are increasingly mentioned in the strategic landscape surrounding Iran, although the degree of their involvement is still shrouded in a gray zone. However, both capitals show a visible caution, aware that getting directly involved in this war could drag them into a confrontation of unpredictable scale with the United States. In a phone call with President Masoud Pezeshkian, he expressed condolences for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities, insisting on a diplomatic solution. Along the same lines, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Washington knows who is talking to whom, that it is 'following everything' and integrating that information into its military plans, and warned that any behavior that should not be happening will be faced with firmness. A recent Reuters analysis noted that despite the condemnatory rhetoric against U.S. and Israeli bombings, both Russia and China remain, in essence, on the sidelines of open military involvement. Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi told NBC News that Russia and China support Iran 'politically and in other ways,' though he avoided offering details. So far, neither the CIA nor the Kremlin have formally confirmed that assistance, though Russia's official silence and Dmitry Peskov's evasiveness have further fueled suspicions. From the White House, spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt declined to comment on 'intelligence reports leaked to the press,' but at the same time minimized the potential operational impact of that cooperation. The underlying reading is that both powers prefer to preserve room for maneuver for their own strategic interests: Moscow, focused on the war in Ukraine and its contacts with Washington; Beijing, focused on avoiding greater destabilization that would harm energy routes, trade, and global prices. In the Chinese case, the most relevant data is not direct proof of military assistance to Iran, but the display of surveillance capabilities. The South China Morning Post reported that the Chinese firm MizarVision published for weeks images and detailed tracking of U.S. military deployments in countries such as Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and other points near the theater of operations.
