The possible end of the war in Ukraine and recent tensions in Venezuela are two factors that could exacerbate the expected fall in oil prices for 2026 due to an oversupply risk. Even without these geopolitical events, the commodities market anticipates a 2026 oil surplus, as OPEC+ maintained its production increases at the end of the year amid weak global demand. In this context, expectations for oil prices suggest downward pressure in 2026, with projections ranging between $50 and $60 per barrel, contrasting with the average price so far in 2025, which has exceeded $60 per barrel. However, institutions like Bank of America do not rule out the possibility of the barrel price plummeting below $50 per barrel next year. While such forecasts are always complex, pessimism is growing as new geopolitical scenarios emerge that could increase pressure on prices. Maximum tension: Trump says 'Venezuela is surrounded' and orders a total blockade of all oil tankers. Such is the case of some signals pointing to a possible end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. For the Mexican mix specifically, this has had an impact of up to a 20.3% decrease so far this year. Another scenario drawing the oil market's attention is the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Venezuela. This came after the U.S. attacked vessels in the Pacific, allegedly due to their links to drug trafficking, and then President Donald Trump announced a blockade against the regime of Nicolás Maduro. For now, analysts do not see an impact on crude oil prices; however, it does pose a risk going forward if a more robust military intervention or a significant deterioration in bilateral relations that threatens Venezuela's oil supply materializes. It is worth recalling that the country has the world's largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels. This pressure is not good news for Mexico, particularly for Pemex, which is struggling to increase its revenues. However, the outlook and latent risks challenge achieving a price above $60 per barrel. 'It is estimated that a potential agreement could free up more than 2 million barrels per day, reinforcing the expectation of a larger global surplus, and consequently, pressuring crude oil prices,' explained Janneth Quiroz, director of economic, stock market, and exchange rate analysis at Monex. The analyst recalled that this issue has already had an impact on crude oil prices. Although significant disagreements persist (particularly regarding security guarantees and territorial control), any significant progress could lead to an increase in Russian crude oil exports.
