The World Bank today issued its forecasts for global economic growth this year, expecting weak growth of 2.6%, which it nevertheless considers a sign of the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. The bank, headquartered in Washington, raised its forecasts, 'especially for the United States of America'. The bank's chief economist, Indermit Gill, confirmed during a press conference by phone that 'the good news is that the global economy has shown resilience (in 2025) amid political uncertainty and rising trade tensions. We were more pessimistic at the beginning of the year, but we were wrong'. Among the factors that contributed to supporting the economy last year, Gill pointed to 'intensive stockpiling' by companies in anticipation of tariffs, especially in the United States of America, as well as 'stronger-than-expected investor appetite for risk, a sharp increase in investment spending on new technologies, especially artificial intelligence'. However, this relatively positive trend is countered by several points that concern the World Bank, starting with the fact that 'about a quarter of low-income countries have not yet returned to their pre-COVID economic level,' according to Indermit Gill. As a result, growth in developing economies is expected to slow in 2026 to 4%, compared to 4.2% last year, while in low-income countries, growth is expected to be higher but insufficient to narrow the income gap with richer countries. The second point is 'a long-term trend towards a possible slowdown in global growth'. We are currently seeing higher tariffs than in the last three or four decades, with the use of non-tariff barriers as a tool in trade policy'. The bank warns in its report that all these factors could complicate the situation in low-income and developing countries, which need to provide 1.2 billion jobs in the next ten years, amid declining investment and pressure on public finances. The bank's chief economist explained this by pointing out that annual growth in per capita investment has fallen from 8% in the first decade of the 2000s to about 2.5% in the second decade. He said: 'This worries us because the long-term trend is characterized by a demographic decline and a continuous decrease in private investment'.
