For markets and policymakers, the priority will be to monitor naval incidents, the speed of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, and any signs of escalation or diplomatic negotiation that could change the perception of risk. In the coming weeks, the evolution of transit through the Strait of Hormuz; the pace of SPR deliveries; crude oil prices; statements from the IEA and the Department of Energy; and diplomatic movements between the United States, Gulf countries, China, and Russia will be followed. The following infographic shows a comparison of price volatility based on recent national conflicts. The next infographic shows the LNG destinations from the Strait of Hormuz, whose impact affects the Asian sector. With the rise in LNG, the main winners are the USA and Russia to the detriment of CHINA. The following infographic shows the damaged assets that will influence a decrease in supply volumes and an increase in logistics costs. Consequences for Gulf allies. The Gulf monarchies, the most affected by the attacks, face a dilemma: depend on U.S. protection despite doubts about its effectiveness, or seek strategic alternatives. By Lucho Ávila. Buenos Aires, March 15, 2026 - Total News Agency - TNA - The decision by the United States to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of a coordinated action by the International Energy Agency, aims to contain the rise in crude oil prices caused by the war in the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts and regional actors warn that the measure only buys time while military and geopolitical risks persist that could once again strain energy markets. Context and emergency measure. The U.S. government announced the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to be delivered over 120 days, as part of an international package totaling 400 million barrels. The survival of the Iranian regime or a power vacuum in Tehran could push these countries to review their alliances and security strategies. Conclusion and follow-up. The release of reserves is a tactical response that mitigates the supply shock, but does not solve the root problem: insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty about Iran's political and military future. The initiative aims to compensate for the drop in flows due to the interruption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and to moderate inflationary pressure before the midterm elections. “If Trump proclaims victory, halts the bombings, and begins to withdraw the enormous air and naval assets he has amassed in the Middle East, he could calm global markets, at least in the short term.” “It is believed that Iran still has numerous short-range missiles and drones—not to mention naval mines—that it can use to block oil and natural gas exports, making the Strait of Hormuz too risky for tankers.” Immediate impact on markets. The crude injection reduces short-term supply pressure, but does not eliminate the risk premium associated with maritime security. Analysts point out that the practical discharge capacity of the reserves is less than the theoretical, so the effect on prices depends on the speed of delivery and the evolution of incidents in the area. The following infographic details the production of LNG and OIL and derivatives until 2025, detailing the volumes of the Strait of HORMUZ and the destinations of the energy products to Asia. Strategic and geopolitical risks. Specialists warn that a rapid exit from the conflict that leaves the Iranian regime in power could strengthen Tehran's influence over energy flows and increase its incentives to rebuild military and nuclear capabilities.
