However, this excessive extension of tension may lead to a clear misjudgment of the Federal Reserve's inclination towards monetary easing this year, even after its latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The sharp rise in oil prices, which pushed Brent to three-digit levels last week, has fueled concerns about inflation in the US, while market expectations for a rate cut have waned. Today, markets are held captive by excessive anxiety over the oil shock triggered by the Iran war, to the point that they are projecting the pressures of the present moment onto the entire future. The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged reflects this balance.
