Tomorrow, New York City and New Jersey State will elect their mayor and governor, respectively. These elections are marked by the high cost of living and will test their status as Democratic bastions amid the party's crisis and the conservative shift in the U.S.
In New York, the Democratic candidate, Zohran Mamdani, is poised to win. He has been on everyone's lips since he defeated the veteran politician Andrew Cuomo in the primaries, despite his short experience as a state assemblyman, and his socialist orientation has raised concerns among party leaders and moderates.
President Donald Trump has called Mamdani a "communist," but he seems to take for granted that he will once again surpass Cuomo, who remains his main rival with an independent candidacy whose campaign has received a shower of millions from several tycoons, both Democrats and Republicans.
The 34-year-old Mamdani, who could become the youngest mayor of New York since 1892 and also the first Muslim mayor, has raised a fraction of Cuomo's electoral funds, but in return, he has inspired the young population, which has become an army of volunteers for his campaign.
An advantage that narrows in New York… The AtlasIntel poll shows Mamdani's narrowest margin over Cuomo, with an estimated 41% of the vote to Cuomo's 34%, which narrows an advantage that has been stabilized in double digits for months. It also reflects some momentum for the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, with 24%, although his chances are slim.
Labeled a populist, Mamdani has proposed free buses and childcare, rent control, the creation of affordable housing and subsidized food supermarkets, which he says he can implement with a tax increase for millionaires and corporations, a concern among moderates.
Cuomo, a former governor, prosecutor, and minister, has insisted that the Democrat lacks experience, but rather than defining a platform, he has focused on the offensive, among other things, referring to the Democrat's criticism of Israel, as New York hosts the largest Jewish population outside the country.
Meanwhile, Mamdani, who was little known until recently, filled a Queens stadium with a capacity of 10,000 people last month at a rally with the slogan "New York is not for sale" in which the duo of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, figures of the left wing, participated and have given him their support.
Other figures who have supported him are the state governor, Kathy Hochul, and the state attorney general, Letitia James, as well as the Democratic minority leader in the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, but not the Senate leader, Chuck Schumer, or former President Barack Obama, among other leaders.
Obama, who this weekend participated in rallies for the Democratic candidates for governor of New Jersey, Mickie Sherrill, and Virginia, Abigail Spanberger, did not travel to the Big Apple but called Mamdani to praise him and offer to be his "echo," as reported by The New York Times, in a positive gesture.
… and a reduced advantage in New Jersey
In New Jersey, the congresswoman, former prosecutor, and military veteran Sherrill has narrowed her lead over her Republican rival, the businessman and former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli, in the final stretch before these elections, which are key for next year's mid-term elections.
The AtlasIntel poll shows an intention to vote of 50% for Sherrill and 49% for Ciattarelli, although other polls from last week give a bigger advantage to the Democrat, 4 points in the case of Suffolk University and up to 10 points in the case of YouGov.
The Democrat's campaign has focused on opposing Trump's policies, but she has detailed measures to reduce the cost of life through clean energy projects, boosting affordable housing, or protecting women's reproductive rights.
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli has proposed tackling the high cost of life through property tax cuts and a hard line on immigration aligned with Trump, who supports him, by eliminating the "sanctuary city" status and allowing cooperation between local and federal authorities.
