This century began with a difficult start, which does not mean that Americans are incapable of changing the situation, but they need political leaders who will tackle these difficult problems and bring both parties to the negotiating table to solve them. As a result, trust in experts and institutions has eroded sharply, making recovery difficult. Meanwhile, some European countries achieved better results, reducing COVID-19-related deaths without disrupting economic and social life or keeping schools closed for long periods. For example, Trump can enforce existing immigration laws, but long-term immigration reform requires new legislation. The administration of former President Joe Biden contributed to the worsening situation, as its public health measures harmed the economy, education, and individual freedoms. At the end of the 20th century, American leadership was undisputed, with the world's strongest economy and military, supported by an unparalleled alliance system. Ultimately, the 2001 fiscal year was the last time the federal government achieved a budget surplus, and the chance to pay off the debt became negligible. Americans from all levels experienced a rise in real incomes. But the damage was done, and the effects of the recession lasted for years, severely damaging the credibility of market systems worldwide, which have not fully recovered to this day. By 2010, polarization had increased sharply, reducing the federal government's ability to function unless one party controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress. The Middle East wars caused many Americans to turn away from international engagement. The United States' financial situation also deteriorated; in January 2001, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the budget surplus achieved by President Bill Clinton in his second term would continue for the next decade, reaching $5.6 trillion, which would have allowed the national debt to be paid off. Facing legislative opposition, presidents of both parties resorted to governing through executive orders and regulations, leading to an expansion of presidential powers accelerated by Donald Trump and undermining the constitutional system. Gridlock in Congress allowed many problems to accumulate without resolution, and efforts to address financial policy, entitlements, and other critical issues stalled. Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other financial experts argued that self-interest would drive banks and other institutions to avoid excessive risk. After the collapse of major Wall Street firms led to a financial crisis and a sharp economic contraction, Greenspan admitted his mistake. Ultimately, the 2001 fiscal year was the last time the federal government achieved a budget surplus, and the chance to pay off the debt became negligible. Poor economic management also extended to financial markets. After 19 months, the same office projected that large tax cuts, increased spending, and falling economic forecasts would eliminate the surplus in 2002 and subsequent years. The federal budget ran a surplus for four consecutive years, from 1998 to 2001. Despite their differences, political parties were able to reach agreements on major issues, including fiscal policy, education, social welfare, the environment, and protecting Americans with disabilities. Leaders of the two major political parties supported China's entry into the World Trade Organization on terms that allowed a flood of cheap imports, which contributed to the loss of 5.7 million manufacturing jobs, or one-third of the total, between the end of the Clinton administration and January 2010. Only a few laid-off workers received assistance transitioning to new jobs, and many suffered a decline in their standard of living, paving the way for an era of populist discontent. However, the events of September 11 caused immense damage to America, and the excessive reaction of President George W. Bush caused further harm. But the Bush administration went much further, launching long-term wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and ultimately declaring an ambitious goal to "end tyranny in the world." But by focusing so much attention and resources on the "Global War on Terror," America almost ignored the growing threat from China. Any competent president would have responded forcefully to the terrorists who killed thousands of Americans. Today, pressures are mounting from all sides: young families cannot afford to buy homes, and Americans aged 80 and over, whose numbers are expected to rise from 14.7 million to nearly 23 million in the next decade, will place an unprecedented strain on the U.S. healthcare system. If Congress does not act, Social Security and Medicare funds will be depleted by 2033, and Trump has eroded allies' confidence in America's support. Only then will America's 25-year decline end and recovery begin.
