Venezuela is key in this regard, and some analysts have already cited this factor as crucial for a potential US intervention. Tracy Schuchart, an economist and strategist at Hilltower Resource Advisors, pointed out in a very extensive text that the narrative of oil and drugs is 'an incomplete approach,' as she highlights that critical minerals have become the top priority for the Pentagon this year. For example, she notes that critical minerals have a budget allocation of $7.5 billion for this year, as they are key to national security infrastructure. A narrative that seems strong, but as the days go by, it begins to lose strength: now not only is the feasibility of the oil plan itself being questioned, but also whether the US interests in Venezuela are even deeper. This week, US President Donald Trump stated that he will take control of Venezuela's oil and agreed with Venezuelan authorities that there will be a supply of up to 50 million barrels per day, although there is still no clear plan to increase this pumping, considering that the country currently barely reaches a production of one million barrels per day. For now, Trump has bet on convincing companies to start their investments and even promises economic incentives for them. 'Oil is secondary' Amid the operational and financial challenges Trump will face to benefit from Venezuelan crude, some analyses go further and focus on another crucial interest for the United States: gaining control of rare earth minerals. The reality looks more complex according to some reports in media outlets like The Washington Post or The New York Times, where unfavorable opinions from top executives of major US oil companies are already leaking. Companies that want to invest in Venezuela to extract the heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt will face deteriorating infrastructure and technological lag, which raise extraction costs to unattractive levels, in a context of high legal and political uncertainty. Some energy consultancies are already making calculations to understand the magnitude of the challenge. For example, Norwegian Rystad Energy estimates that with speed and minimal spending, companies will only be able to extract around 350,000 barrels per day, and Venezuela will need an investment of up to $183,000 million in the next 15 years to increase production to more than 3 million barrels per day. Crude oil remains below $60 and complicates Trump's plan for Venezuela. On the other hand, Kayrros, an artificial intelligence company, estimates that about one-third of Venezuela's storage capacity is currently inactive due to unusable tanks, the reduction of refinery operating rates, and the decrease in oil production. 'Furthermore, Trump's oil plan comes at the least favorable time for the sector, with prices below $60 per barrel and expectations that it will stay at this price throughout the year due to a global oversupply. The discourse behind the detention of Nicolás Maduro has been oil. But the Pentagon states that it is under Chinese control, as are other strategic minerals. Amid the discussion over Venezuelan crude, Chevron could acquire fields in Mexico. Schuchart's analysis focuses on clarifying that it is the Pentagon that decides on a military action, which is then executed by the Executive. 'The companies that the Trump administration is asking to get involved in Venezuela face enormous risks,' Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a research firm that serves the industry, told The Washington Post. 'It's like entering a factory that's been abandoned to its own devices for two and a half decades, or like asking: 'How bad is this house we just bought?' The economist explains that US defense detected significant threats on Venezuelan territory related to Russia, China, and Iraq. Under this optic, the Pentagon's objective would be, on one hand, to break China's control over these mineral resources; on the other, to eliminate Iranian manufacturing capability and expel Russian military presence. 'The fact that the Pentagon has allocated these funds demonstrates that critical minerals have been elevated to the same level of strategic priority as ammunition and fuel,' Schuchart said. 'The crown jewel is coltan, a key raw material for making tantalum capacitors, which are used in all advanced electronic systems, including military communication equipment, missile guidance computers, and radar systems.' 'The generals understand the strategic vulnerabilities in contemporary threat environments where China, Iran, and Russia operate as coordinated adversaries. The oil narrative is a theater,' she concludes. The problem is that China controls up to 95% of the world's processing capacity for most critical minerals, which are essential for this purpose. Meanwhile, operations at the large interconnected refineries of Amuay and Cardón are operating below 20% of their capacity, making them de facto storage centers, according to experts. Additionally, she points out that the country's pipelines have not been updated in 50 years and an investment of more than $60,000 million is estimated to restore them to optimal conditions. Under this scenario of high investments, some analysts warn that it is difficult to think that companies have made their 2026 investment plans considering the new situation in Venezuela.
