This is how it is understood in the industry, as explained to LPO. Trump needs both sides of the political board to materialize the investments he requested in Washington last Friday: he needs Chavism in the short term for governance reasons, but he also cannot leave Machado out of the equation due to the other inevitable issue of legal security. It is understandable: Trump is seeking an investment of $100 billion from the oil sector, but some companies have already been expropriated twice in Venezuela. Trump posted on social media before the meeting that a "very important factor" in the US intervention in Venezuela is "reducing oil prices for the American people." Meanwhile, the debt to ConocoPhillips amounts to $9 billion. At one point during Friday's meeting, as revealed by The Dallas Morning News, Trump asked Ryan Lance how much the company had lost in Venezuela, which led to the Houston-based CEO of ConocoPhillips stating a loss of $12 billion. "Good write-off," Trump joked. The situation is further complicated by the White House's search for low prices, with oil trading below $60 a barrel and the administration seeking to reduce it significantly more. Chavism is necessary in this first phase, but then a government will be needed that respects rules and contracts, and that's where Machado comes in, whom the president snubbed after arresting Nicolás Maduro. How long for that second phase? In the segment of major oil companies, the case of Liberia is mentioned, a country with incipient crude resources: George W. Bush overthrew dictator Charles Taylor in 2003, but it took two years to organize free elections. The most cautious about Trump's plans has been Exxon's boss, Darren Woods. The meeting that Donald Trump and María Corina Machado will hold this Thursday at the White House has more to do with oil plans in Venezuela than with a democratic vocation on the part of the US president. "The administration is using contradictory tactics by saying it wants to lower prices to $50 a barrel and increase production," commodities trader Morgan Downey told the Washington Post. The executive has mentioned the expropriations but also the need for long-term legal protection, in addition to the not insignificant issue that Chavismo owes him $1 billion. In any case, the research firm Wood Mackenzie suggests that companies would need to earn up to $80 a barrel to break even. The problem is evident: lowering prices by flooding the market with more oil reduces the financial viability of drilling expansion.
