The futures contract for soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reached its highest level in the past 15 months on November 6, 2023. This trend is mainly driven by the market's optimistic sentiment about the prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. This price surge is closely related to the imminent U.S.-China high-level talks, with both sides planning to hold consultations in Seoul, South Korea on November 16, aiming to ease the tense trade situation that has lasted for many years. The market widely expects that if the two countries can reach an agreement in key agricultural product areas, it will significantly boost global agricultural product demand expectations.
A senior economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Keith Kock, pointed out: "The current market sentiment reflects a high degree of attention among traders to the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks. Especially in the agricultural import side, as the world's largest buyer, China's purchasing decisions have a decisive impact on global price fluctuations." Kock added: "Even if a formal agreement has not been reached, the expectation itself is enough to drive prices up, especially in low-stock varieties." He emphasized that if the talks achieve substantive progress, soybean and other agricultural product prices may rise further, but he also warned that geopolitical risks and technical adjustments could bring short-term fluctuations.
This price increase is also influenced by other factors, including supply issues in South America's main production areas and the seasonal rebound in U.S. soybean export demand. Analysts believe that if the U.S.-China talks fail to reach an agreement as expected, the market may face回调 risks, but the current optimistic sentiment still occupies a dominant position.
