International oil prices recorded a strong rebound of over 6% this Monday, in the first session after the military offensive launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday. This conflict threatens global crude oil supplies and keeps energy markets on alert. U.S. WTI crude closed up 6.28%, settling at $71.23 per barrel, while North Sea Brent—the European benchmark—rose 6.68% to $77.74. Risk in the Strait of Hormuz fuels nervousness The market reacted to the risk to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's oil passes, equivalent to about 15 million barrels daily. After the market close, Iranian General Ebrahim Yabari warned that they will “set fire to” any vessel attempting to cross the strait, causing WTI to surge by up to 8% in electronic trading, reaching $72.50. Although there is no official confirmation of the closure of the maritime passage, several international shipping lines have suspended or diverted routes, increasing fears of an energy supply disruption. Military operation and conflict escalation U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the operation, codenamed “Sacred Rage,” will continue “for as long as necessary” and could even extend beyond five weeks. The offensive resulted in the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in power since 1989, intensifying tension throughout the Middle East region. Can oil reach $100? Analysts warn that if the conflict prolongs or the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, crude prices could climb to $100 per barrel in the worst-case scenario. In addition to oil, natural gas also surged by nearly 45% after Qatar closed the world's largest liquefied natural gas refinery following Iranian drone attacks, affecting approximately 20% of global production. OPEC+ increases production, but fails to calm the market Amid the crisis, the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day. However, experts believe the measure will not be sufficient to stabilize markets in the short term. The final impact will depend on the duration and escalation of the conflict, energy policy specialists warned.
