The world is at a crucial moment where it must seek a new global order or balance, regardless of the influence of the United States. The Trump administration has shown a particular interest in pleasing Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, leading to a situation of distrust and abandonment by European allies. Europe finds itself needing to assume a more active role to fill the vacuum left by the United States, including the defense of Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached.
Trump has incorrectly argued that the world has abused the United States, leading to a search for re-industrialization and a distancing from global integration, generating insecurity and putting the global balance at risk. The unpredictable and erratic behavior of the United States has increased the economic, political, and military risks for global actors.
The possibility of an agreement between Russia, China, and the United States to divide areas of influence could break the current global balance, leaving traditional U.S. allies helpless. In this scenario, the developed democracies of Europe and Asia must seek alternatives to counter the authoritarian threat, even within the United States.
In the economic sphere, it is necessary to diversify relationships with the United States, as the uncertainty generated by the Trump administration makes it difficult to trust as a trading partner and political and military ally. There is a growing need to seek alternatives that ensure the security of countries against the unilateral policies of the United States.
The military protection offered by the United Kingdom and France becomes essential in a context where dependence on U.S. security has been called into question. In the face of threats from China and Russia, there is a possibility that countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, and Poland will seek to develop nuclear capabilities for self-defense.
The relationship between Russia and China is strengthening, while the temporary withdrawal of U.S. military intelligence has allowed Russia to regain territories in Ukraine. In this context, diversification appears as the antidote to the risks posed by the current global situation.
