This trading week closed at 17.34 pesos per dollar. However, the strength of the peso, analysts insist, is more related to the weakness of the dollar than to internal factors, which some economists have already called 'dedollarization,' responding to several factors such as inflation prospects and monetary policy expectations, within the framework of Donald Trump's tariff war, as well as a more unstable U.S. political framework. Amador is considering activating the IEPS stimulus due to oil price pressures from attacks on Iran. Similarly, high U.S. deficits and the increase in debt are also pressing as a key factor in the deterioration. Now, amidst tensions in Iran, these questions are gaining strength. During 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 9.4% and continues its decline this year, accumulating a 7% drop in the first two months of the year, reaching a four-year low, despite the strength of its economy. Meanwhile, the peso is strengthening, well above the market's projections for the Mexican currency, which had estimated an exchange rate near 20 units per dollar last year. With this measure, the EU not only seeks to avoid deepening the eurozone crisis but also to bolster the viability of the euro. The growing willingness of Washington to use its financial dominance to pressure its rivals has increased the clamor for alternatives to the dollar. Another factor for 'dedollarization' is also mentioned, linked to the availability of technological solutions that cheapen and speed up settlement and exchange infrastructure. For the United States, this is a very risky and costly scenario in terms of its bloated debt, which is on track to reach 130% of GDP in five years, according to the International Monetary Fund. And while U.S. Treasury bonds are still the asset many investors turn to when the situation gets tough, there are also warnings here: economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis noted a significant decrease in what is known as the 'convenience yield' of U.S. Treasury bonds. 'The attacks reinforce the perception that the United States operates with scant respect for international law and global norms,' noted a piece in the British newspaper The Guardian. The dedollarization process has received a new boost thanks to Trump's chaotic regime, and governments around the world are quietly building alternatives. The editorial piece points to the possibility that the dollar may be moving away from global dominance. On the contrary, it closed 2025 at 18 pesos, that is, an appreciation of 13% and has remained in the 17-unit range since the beginning of the year. Will the dollar maintain its global hegemony in the future? While it acknowledges that international trade is still mostly denominated in dollars, the use of the Chinese yuan is on the rise and highlights new, discreet, and gradual alternatives from central banks. A relevant data point in this regard is that the proportion of dollars in central banks' reserves has decreased from 71% in 2001 to 57% in the last quarter of last year. In this sense, it highlights that the European Central Bank announced it will reinforce its repurchase agreements (repo), essentially a permanent offer to lend euros to other central banks in times of crisis. This is the question anchored in the markets since last year, when the dollar index began to lose ground against other currencies. Some analysts also consider another factor to be the decreasing trust in U.S. institutions. This weekend added another determining factor: geopolitical tension in Iran.
